The Dems have Blown the Popularity

>> Wednesday, September 17, 2008

We here a lot about how the climate is so favorable to dems that Barack Obama should be destroying McCain. The truth of the matter is that Dems are not really that much more popular than the republicans at this point. Being up by 20 like they were during the 2006 midterms was not going to be sustainable. However given the severe problems that are going on this country how are the Republicans doing as a brand? Is it in the tank? umm no.

Latest RCP,

RCP Average 09/05 - 09/14 46.6 42.3 Democrats +4.3

Barack Obama versus McCain?

RCP Average 09/05 - 09/15 -- 46.3 45.0 McCain +1.3

That would put Obama at just under two points less popular than the democratic brand while mccain is 4 points more than his.

These results do not paint the same rosy picture that many on the Dem side have been holding up. Clearly something has happened that has eroded the Dem brand. I cant sat exactly what it is but i can advance some theories.

The first thing i would point to is the lessening of the importance of Iraq. As Iraq has moved off the front pages the Dems lost that issue. It was an issue directly linked to Bush and the GOP brand. It was easy to build resentment and a climate ready to punish the GOP. That is gone and replaced by a climate where people have been deluded into thinking the surge worked. It also looks like we will be leaving Iraq soon. The dems removed any reason to punish the GOP over this.

The second and i think the most compelling is that the Dems have not delivered on anything. They are so weak that they cant stand up to a president with less than 30% approval. They have no principles they are not willing to run from in the name of political saftey. Somethings are worth losing over but instead of fighting the gop and winning respect and possibly the battle the dems cave.

People who thought the dems were going to change things have been moderately dissolusioned. People who wanted hearings and oversight have gotten nothing. The dem leadership has been willing to simply ride anti bush anti gop feeling and trust that would be enough to carry them. In doing so they have wasted any fire that people had behind the dems as a party. Yes they are still better than the gop but not to a level that cant be overcome.

The biggest caves were over fisa, subpoena's, and now off shore drilling. In all of these cases the dems had facts and common sense and logic on their side. They gave those up in the front of confrontation. They gave the gop more than they could have hoped for, substantiated the craziness of the gop policies and became a running joke.


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