>> Saturday, September 6, 2008
The registration trends are in. If McCain is counting on a base turnout strategy, these numbers tell the story of why that will just not work. In contrast these numbers are good news for Obama and a demonstration of why the GOTV efforts that Obama is laying the foundation for will have such an important role. The dems are killing in a number of key states and if they can get these voters to the polls he will have an advantage.
Hat tip to The Edge of the American West/ for putting the numbers and able together.
The key states here are Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania and Iowa. The dramatic differences in these states are especially bad news for McCain because each of these states are considered swing states vital for a victory in November. To get a good handle on how Obama is doing we always have to use the Kerry map. Obama would need 19 more electoral votes than Kerry to win. Of the states above Bush won Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Iowa.
President Bush won Colorado by 99,523; Florida by 380,978; Iowa by 10,059; Nevada by 21,500; and NC by 435,317. Kerry won Pennsylvania by 144,248 votes. For further Context here is a chart detailing the total voter numbers per state, its from july but not too outdated,
So to synthesize the information, the McCain camp is really in trouble in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada. Florida is a strange case which you can read about here. While it is nice to see Obama gaining ground in North Carolina the past trends do not indicate that he will carry the state. Even picking up over 150,000 voter advantage over McCain in registrations during 2008 is just not going to make that much of a dent. dems held, and still do, a massive lead in voter id in that state and still lost by almost more than 400,000 votes.
The poor registration numbers of the GOP in these states may be due to several factors. The most important of these factors is the lack of enthusiasm among the general populace for the GOP. People have been leaving the GOP in droves over the last several years. It is one of the few indicators that help explain why the conservatives are always so united around ideas that most people dont agree with. the GOP is being whitled down to its pure base, its pure ideological purity.
The biggest example of this is the total death of the party in the north east. The elephant is virtually extinct on the national stage there and so this means that there are no moderating influences in the party. The more seats in congress the dems take in competitive districts the more conservative the gop will be on the national stage, simply because the moderates cant win in districts without a huge republican advantage, but those districts go to the hardest core republicans. its a catch-22.
Another thing to consider when looking at these voter registration numbers is that Obama should exceed the kerry turnout numbers in every state. Even if this is only by a couple of percentage points that could be the difference. This is based on the fact that Obama's GOTV setup is supposed to be one of histories best, rivaling or surpassing the one that Bush created to help get him elected. At last report McCain was severely lacking in his ground operations.
If the trends hold that is very good news for Obama and very bad news for McCain. McCain is running out of time to make up ground in pavement level organizing and in registration numbers. Without these he will be in serious trouble for the election. Ignore the national level polls and concentrate on the state by state polls. It is the state by state polls that matter because it is the electoral college that decides the election. Obama looks to be moving many of the potential battlegrounds out of reach of McCain and bringing some other states into the mix. This is all bad news for McCain.