The Turn Out

The biggest crap shoot of this election is foing to be the turnout. Who ultimately shows up to vote will determine who is elected. There is one potential model where Obama wins big and none of the mccain voters turn out. This would leave us short of the record turnout that some people have predicted. It is also possible depending on the lack of enthusiasm for mccain versus the fear of an obama presidency. McCain and the gop have done a very goood job trying to make sure that their base fears Obama.

People have evaluated his ads based on the idea that he is trying to scare the undecideds away from voting for obama but this tactic also works to scare your base into voting. Make them so fear the opponent that even though they dont particularly like you the fear of the other guy is so great that they just cant take the risk of letting him win. Here is the turnout discussion from last nights hardball.



I do have to take issue with the assertion that McCain is running his GOTV efforts in ohio and the other traditional battleground states. 538 did the work of actually visiting the offices in the battle ground states.

Offices in Troy, Ohio were closed on Saturday October 11. With perfect coincidental timing, two elderly women dropped by to volunteer but found the office shut. At Republican state headquarters in Columbus later the same day, one lonely dialer sat in a sea of unoccupied chairs. In Des Moines on September 25, another empty office. In Santa Fe on September 17, one dialer made calls while six chatted amongst themselves about how they didn't like Obama. In Raleigh this past Saturday, ten days before the election with early voting already open, two women dialed and a male staffer watched the Georgia-LSU game. In Durango, Colorado on September 20, the Republican office was locked and closed. Indiana didn't have McCain Victory offices when we were there in early October.

When the offices are open, they have reduced hours. We can confidently plan to get evening good-light photographs of a town after we visit the local McCain office, because we know it will be closing by 5 pm, as the office in Wilmington, North Carolina was this past Sunday. The plan is, get to inevitably closed/closing McCain office, get an hour of photos near sunset, then visit the bustling local Obama office.

It coming down to the wire. It appears Obama has done everything possible to take this thing. One day till election time.