No on 4 in California

I have been seeing this ad on tv.



The ad depicts a teenage girl who has fled to a dingy abortion parlor in TJ because she wants to get an abortion in California but is afraid of the notification provision. As far as ads go i think it is pretty clear in its message. The opponents are saying this is what happens, is it what you want? The only way it could be tougher is if they simply had a picture of a clothes hanger with a voice over.

This is the third attempt at passing this particular parental notification initiative. The previous two attempts, Proposition 73 in the November 2005 special election and Proposition 85 in the November 2006 general election failed and the advocates are hoping third time is a charm. A Field Poll on the measure was released mid september,

The poll finds that 49 percent of likely voters intend to vote for the measure while 41 percent say they are against the proposition. The poll found that 10 percent of the respondents are undecided.

The 8 point ‘yes' side is 1 point down from the 9 point advantage the measure had according to a Field Poll conducted in July.

This is similar to a more recent Survey USA election poll conducted in early October which found 52% in favor of the measure. Clearly the measure is going to be very tight. The deciding factor is going to be the turnout on the dem side and the support among those dems.

Latinos in the September Field Poll appeared to be favoring the measure 62 percent to 31 percent, a 31-point margin. In 2006, the second consecutive year in which a similar parental notification initiative failed at the California polls, the margin among Latinos was 22 percentage points, according to Field Poll officials.

The Survey USA poll showed Democratic support (38 percent) and women's support (52 percent) for Prop. 4 increased since 2006, when polls found only 33 percent of Democrat voters and 44 percent of women supported a parental notification ballot measure. Regionally, support for Prop. 4 is strongest in the Central Valley (60 percent) and the Inland Empire (60 percent), with narrow approval in the greater Los Angeles area (51 percent).

The question is if this ad will knock down the support among women and among the latino population. I think we see this one squeak by and notification become the long of the land.